>Revise 2025–2026 operational cost models using $90–$100/bbl oil price scenarios—complete by August 31, 2025 (led by Finance Department)
>Audit all procurement, logistics, and distribution contracts for fuel surcharge (BAF) or price-indexation clauses; initiate renegotiation with Indonesian partners starting July 2025 (per BKPM Regulation No. 24/2021)
>Subscribe to official budget revision alerts via MoF-RI website (https://www.kemenkeu.go.id) and notify your licensed Indonesian auditor of exposure
English Summary
Indonesia’s 2026 State Budget—initially based on an unrealistic $70/bbl oil price assumption—is undergoing urgent reassessment due to crude prices exceeding $90/bbl, driven by Middle East geopolitical escalation. Each $1/bbl increase above $70 adds Rp 7 trillion ($414M) to fuel subsidy outlays (per Energy Shift Institute). At $80/bbl, the shortfall reaches Rp 84 trillion. While no formal regulation or deadline is yet issued, this triggers mandatory mid-year budget revision under Law No. 17/2003 on State Finance. Foreign businesses operating in Indonesia—especially in manufacturing, logistics, power, and retail—must monitor BKPM and MoF announcements for subsidy adjustments, potential VAT/fuel excise changes, and revised fiscal incentives. Proactive cost modeling using $90–$100/bbl scenarios is strongly advised before Q3 2025. No new tax rates are announced, but exposure to fuel-indexed operational costs and contract renegotiation risk is immediate.
请汇总三组核心数据：1）2025年1–5月实际柴油/汽油单耗（升/单位产出）；2）当前燃油采购价与2024年均价对比增幅；3）合同中燃油成本占总成本权重。结合MoF-RI每月发布的‘APBN Update’简报（官网免费下载），形成双情景（$85 vs $100/bbl）损益预测表，供总部7月战略会使用。
ur state budget plan for 2026 looked overly optimistic to begin with, so the recent increase in global energy prices only forces our government to recognize an imminent reality and rethink state revenue and expenditure. ur state budget plan for 2026 looked overly optimistic to begin with, so the recent increase in global energy prices only forces our government to recognize an imminent reality and rethink state revenue and expenditure. While the budget is typically revised around mid-year, the sudden increase in oil and gas prices sparked by the United States-Israel attack on Iran calls for a swift reassessment of the macroeconomic assumptions underlying our fiscal policy. Crude futures rose above US$90 a barrel on Friday, and many analysts expect them to reach triple digits before Washington and Tel Aviv finally end their deadly campaign. Meanwhile, the government’s budget plan is based on an assumed average oil price of $70 a barrel throughout the year. Every dollar above that price would drive up the state’s fuel subsidy bill by Rp 7 trillion ($414 million), according to an estimate from the Energy Shift Institute (ESI), so an average of $80 would force the government to find an extra Rp 84 trillion. Of course, the events unfolding in Iran were impossible to predict when the budget was drafted, but the $70 figure appears overly optimistic even based on the information available in 2025. Whether you're looking to broaden your horizons or stay informed on the latest developments, "Viewpoint" is the perfect source for anyone seeking to engage with the issues that matter most. By registering, you agree with The Jakarta Post's Privacy Policy Please check your email for your newsletter subscription. Oil cost more than that for most of the past decade, and geopolitics was already fraught with risks, so assuming last year’s exceptionally low oil price would continue into this year left little room for unforeseen events like the situation we now have in the Middle East.